Houstonians should look beyond the current economy to see what opportunities are ahead. During sluggish economic times, it is difficult to fathom what the future will bring.  However, David Crowe, Chief Economist for the National Association of Home Builders is predicting a severe housing shortage that will begin in the next 18 months and continue for a decade.  While his prediction may be slanted from a home builder industry perspective, the Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies has a similar prediction.

You can read more on these studies at:

1. HousingWatch.com
2. NationalBuilderNews.com
3. Harvard University Joint Center for Housing

The housing shortage prediction is based on

1.    Gen-Yer’s, 81 million strong, believe in homeownership and there are 5 million more than there were Boomers.  

2.    According to the National Association of Realtors®, 47% of home buyers in 2009 were first-time home buyers and they predict that in 2010, first-time home buyers will represent 52% of all homes sales.   The Gen-Yer’s housing impact has only just begun.

3.    According to their report, Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies anticipates household growth during the next 10 years to range between 12.5 million and 14.8 million. All those new households mean demand for many new housing units.   

4.    Bottom line, the number of homes being built simply is not enough to keep up with America’s growing population.

 Will the Greater Houston Metropolitan area be affected?

Houston’s median age is among the lowest of the nation’s major metropolitan areas.  The median age is 33.1. Almost one third of Houston’s population is Gen Y – 28.8% and 58% are of prime home buying age.  It’s estimated that 27.8% have college degrees – one of the highest in the nation.  Source:  Greater Houston Partnership – www.houston.org.

According to the Greater Houston Partnership, Houston is expected to see 1.9-2.7% GDP growth in 2010 and they anticipate Houston to be on the employment

upswing by 4^th Quarter 2011. 

 

 

Thereafter, the metropolitan area should return to vigorous growth.

Our conclusion, based on current demographics, Houston’s growth predictions and the reduction in home building, is that Houston could very well face a housing shortage in the future.

 And right now home buyers can capitalize on

1.    A good selection of affordable homes

2.    The 2010 Homebuyer Tax Credit for First-Time and Current Homeowners

3.    Lower interest rates, which are expected to rise after the April 30^th Tax Credit expires.

 

We invite you to conduct your own research on the best time to buy a home, but rarely in history have homes and the interest rates to buy them been “on sale”.  Waiting may prove to be very expensive indeed.

To search for homes or learn more about what your home is worth in todays’ market, go to www.garygreene.com.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tags: Houston Home sales, Houston Real Estate, Houston Real Estate Market