According to a nationwide forecast by IHS Global Insight, four major Texas metros will be among the first in the nation to recover from the recession.  San Antonio and Austin are expected to bounce back to prerecession job levels sometime next year, predicts the Lexington, Mass.-based economic forecasting firm.

Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth are among eight other Metropolitan areas predicted to recover by 2011.  At Prudential Gary Greene Realtors, we believe that the best time to capitalize on a bounce back is before it bounces back!  With interest rates at an all-time low and only a few months left to receive the $8,000 IRS Tax Credit for First-Time Homebuyers[expires December 1, 2009], there has never been a better time to invest in a home, particularly in Houston.

The Houston Market for Third Quarter Year-to-Date 2009:

The trend is continuing.  With each month that passes in 2009, the Houston real estate market shows a marked improvement from the previous months:

Houston Market Improvement Comparison 2009
Market Indicator	February ‘09	June ‘09	Sept. ‘09	% Change from June ‘09
# units sold	-24%	-20%	-13%	+54%
Dollar volume sold	-33%	-24%	-17%	+41%
Average Sales Price	-12%	-6%	-4%	+50%
Median Sales Price	-8%	-2%	-1%	+50%
# of Pending Sales	-23%	-21%	-15%	+40%
Active Listings	-20%	-22%	-21%	-4.8%

February YTD is used as a comparison as it appears to be the month when Houston hit bottom in residential real estate.  June YTD is mid-year, and displays an improved market from February YTD.   The best YTD month in terms of  market improvement is September YTD.  Granted, last September statistics were marred by Hurricane Ike and has been a factor in making these current statistics look far better.  However, the last quarter of 2008 was also plagued with the mortgage meltdown, destabilization of our financial markets and a barrage of bad economic news.  The author believes 2009 will end much smoother than  the year began.  The New Year should experience a continuuance of the market trends seen herein and it will pave the way for a 2011 economic bounce back to pre-recession levels as predicted by IHS Global Insight. 

Here’s a quick synopsis of the above market indicators for September YTD 2009:

• Single-family home sales reached 40,558, which is down by 13% from Sept. YTD 2008.
• Dollar volume sold reached $8,247,700,781 or 17% less than found this same time last year.
• Average sales price is currently $203,356 and that is down by 4% over Third Quarter YTD 2008.
• Median sales price is $154,000 and that is down by 1%.
• Pending sales [contracts written] reached 28,042 and that figure is down by 15% over this time last year.
• There are currently 27,824 active listings in the Houston area, 21% fewer than found a year ago.

The market continues to strengthen due to two factors:

1. the current decline in sales [-13%]is not nearly as steep as
2. the decline in inventory, a.k.a. listings [-21%]. 

What price of homes are hot in Houston currently?  The table below shows the top ten price classes and they represent the hottest number of sales.

Top Ten Hottest Selling Price Classes Houston Single-Family Real Estate Third Quarter YTD 2009
Price Class	Sales Year to Date	Active Listings	Months of Inventory
1. $200,000-$249,999	4,224	2,726	6.1
2. $300,000-$399,999	2,931	2,589	8.3
3. $250,000-$299,999	2,879	2,237	7.4
4. $130,000-$139,999	2,254	1,193	4.8
5. $120,000-$129,999	2,251	1,282	5.2
6. $110,000-$119,999	1,982	1,225	5.5
7. $140,000-$149,999	1,951	1,172	5.6
8. $150,000-$159,999	1,943	1,053	5.1
9.   $90,000-$99,999	1,779	1,125	5.8
10.$160,000-$169,999	1,752	1,022	5.5

From an investment standpoint, now is the time to purchase a home in Houston, Texas and purchasing in the hottest selling price classes minimizes that risk. 

*Statistics derived from data received from Houston Realtors® Information Services and The Real Estate Center at Texas A & M University and compiled by Toni C. Nelson, Director of Strategic Initiatives for Prudential Gary Greene, Realtors®.

Tags: Houston Home sales, Houston Real Estate Market